The Fall of Amar Singh

So Mulayam Singh has finally accepted Amar Singh's resignation. Many questions have been raised and a few unanswered. Was Amar Singh's resignation pre planned or it came like a bolt from the blue. Such major things do not happen just like that, and this was just waiting to happen. Ever since Kalyan Singh joined hands with the SP to all the way in Firozabad byelection where Dimple lost creating a very embarrassing situation for Akhilesh Yadav. It was pretty clear that the SP had just been given a rude wake up call and the party was headed for a major shake up.
So what went wrong in a relationship that had stood the test of time. Amar Singh and Mulayam Singh were inseparable, but blood is thicker than water. The frustration of Mulayam's family over Amar Singh had been building since 2007. But things only got worse after the 2009 Lok Sabha election. SP losing out any kind of bargaining power in the Centre, while its main opposition party the BSP was ruling roost in UP.
People blame Amar Singh for bringing in Dimple and infighting that led to SP losing the prestigious Firozabad seat. But didnt the very same people realise that they were anyways heading for disaster by making Akhilesh contest from two seats of Kannauj and Firozabad. Akhilesh would have won both seats which he did, but the big question is that who would they give the ticket to when Akhilesh would vacate a seat. The SP leadership tried to take the easier way out by postponing a tough decision, hoping that things would sort themselves out on their own. The result was disastrous, the SP had to fight the Firozabad byelection with the BSP at the helm in the state. If they had given the ticket to someone else during the Lok Sabha elections, they would still have been better off as the political situation would have been much more neutral that it is in a byelection where the ruling party in the state normally has the upper hand.
Why blame Amar Singh when atleast three former MLA's of the SP from the area were instrumental in ensuring that people once again had to relive the days of SP's goondaraj during the Firozabad byelection. Apart from their image, what happened to all the money that Amar Singh had sent for the election while he was recuperating in Singapore. Can the SP wrong or even question Amar Singh's integrity in any way for his role in the byelection ?
Now to the moot question, yes its true that Amar Singh did influence the SP to such an extent that when Mulayam was taking oath in 2003 as Chief Minister of UP, people were witnessing a different Samajwad or Socialism than the one they were used to. Sahara's entire fleet had the likes of the Bachchans, Ambanis and the Nandas driving to the ceremony. The Uttar Pradesh Development Corporation and the Dadri Power Project were brain child of Amar Singh. Sadly both were non starters, Dadri is nowhere near starting while UPDC was scrapped by the BSP regime.
Kalyan Singh was perhaps Amar Singh's biggest blunder, but he did have some correct arithmetic to it. Knowing fully well that the BJP was finished and the Muslim vote was no longer as loyal to the SP. he did try to get the OBC Rajput formula going for the SP. But with muslims voting enmasse for the Congress, Amar Singh had to bear the brunt of it. So the old guard within the SP got together and started a campaign for the party to get back to its Socialist leanings that had made it a darling with the masses. Which in operational terms meant, get rid of Amar Singh.
Ram Gopal Yadav is just the face of that campaign, and Amar Singh realised the futility of his continuing with a party where he is doing all he can and is yet criticised for not doing enough. So will Amar Singh join the Congress. No, as there are few takers for him in the Congress. The best bet is for him to be on his own, and it may not take very long for Amar Singh to float his own outfit. He has the money and supporters to contest atleast 60 seats in the UP assembly election in 2012, and can even get 20 candidates elected. He could be the Raj Thackeray of the SP in the next election and anyone who stakes claim to the next Govt in UP will need his support. Amar Singh can easily tie up with NCP, Left and other regional parties and get a national status like Shankar Sinh Vaghela had after he brought down the BJP Govt in Gujarat in the 1990's. Vaghela's RJP fared badly in the next election and he or Bapu as he is fondly called was referred to as a leader without a party. But Amar Singh could do it differently, as all eyes are once again on him, as the Rajput from Azamgarh could be the king maker in UP in 2012.

The RG Factor

The Congress' brahmastra...Rahul Gandhi campaigned in UP and the party just about managed to hold onto its nine percent voteshare. So is there really a Rahul Gandhi factor or is it just hype around the young MP ??? After all...winning the Amethi seat is no big deal for the Gandhi family...so is RG...as he is called will be able to revive the Congress or is he finished...especially after the UP results ???

Any outsider will tell you that RG went to 130 assembly seats and tried hard to connect with the youth promising them a bright future. All the talk about kande se kandhe mila kar chaloonga just died at the hustings !!! But the fact is...people did come out to see him...listen to him and shake hands with him...then what went wrong...why did the Congress just manage 22 seats ???

Thats a question which the party is still groping with...but that seems to be the last thing on RG's mind. Not only did he congratulate Maya on her win but also spoke in Parliament about buliding the party organisation. Maybe RG was trying to shift the blame on the party organisation...but then isnt he also a part of the party and organisation ??? So was he actually running away from the truth ??? My take is that he was subtly taking the responsibility for the poor show.

Reports coming in also tell us that RG is meeting almost all the Congress candidates who polled over ten thousand votes...and has asked all MLA's to give him a monthly report about the status of Maya govt and feedback on their areas in general. Does this mean that Rahul is still interested in UP ??? RG may have failed to convert the votes this time...but he anyways wasnt expecting any miracle to happen. In all his statements, he talked about UP not being a one election job, but a long term haul.

So this time around...you may see a Rahul Gandhi quietly doing his job. Giving the youngsters a chance to grow and making an honest effort to revive the party in a state where caste rules the roost. His controversial statements apart, it may be too early to write off Rahul...as he also knows that if he is to keep the family legacy going...then the keys to his future lie in UP.

Its a battle for his survival...to not just take on the likes of Mulayam if he is to woo the minorities back to the Congress...but also to negate the Maya factor who is subverting the Congress formula...and it may just be a matter of time before Maya draws her sword against him...as for Rahul...miles to go before he sleeps.

Rahul vs Maya

Now that all the hurly burly is done with and the much hyped Uttar Pradesh elections are over. Its time to sit quietly and think what next for Maya...a majority in 14 years...wow !!! All the usual statistics about brahmins voting for BSP and the Congress formula being subverted etc etc is long gone. Its time to think what lies ahead for UP.

The Congress style of brahmins preaching to dalits for 40 years is gone, though the Congress did give ornamental presence to dalits in their ministries right from the days of Babu Jagjivan Ram. But now its the other way around...BSP has almost her MLA strength in the form of upper castes. That pretty much explains how Maya has come a long way to now playing a major role in national politics.

Now lets try and imagine the scenario a few months later. Maya is known to run the administration with an iron hand. She doesnt like individuals who try and create their own identity...it makes her insecure. So one should not expect to see ministers performing well as individuals. Something which could negate all of Maya's good intentions.

As far as her MLA's are concerned, we all know that the tickets did come at a price and all elected members would want to extract that price once in power. Its a natural phenomenon and one should not grudge the MLA's for doing that. Because its a simple give and take formula and thats how businesses run.

So if Im an upper caste MLA and Im trying to extract my price though government contracts or maybe some land dispute...who will I be in direct conflict with ??? At some point of time, it will be a dalit in some sphere of work...and thats when the real test for Maya will come. Will she keep her new found friends happy or will she stick to keeping her base cadre intact. She will have to take a decision because she can only keep one side happy. In either case, one side will be unhappy and thats the catch...what will the unhappy side do.

If its the upper caste...then his anger will slowly simmer as he will wait for the right moment...the dalits have been murmuring their unhappiness with maya's brahmin wooing formula for the past few months...but with a resounding win, its muted for now. If its the dalit who is left unhappy, then these murmurs will again start...it takes one small example to make it the talk of the town.

Another scenario...in the villages of UP, there is already talk of brahmin ministers touching maya's feet...this applies to all upper castes who took oath as ministers. But its the brahmin who takes his caste more seriously...earlier he was in conflict with the Yadav who used to trumpet around the village when Mulayam was in power. The Yadavs gaining power led to major resentment within brahmins, which is why they decided to teach Mulayam a lesson by voting for maya. Now the Yadav sits next to the paan shop extolling the virtues of brahmins...especially the latest feet touching move. That will never go down well with the brahmins at large, but the Yadav will keep reminding the brahmins of their glorious past with today...and would be loving every moment of it.

Maya's unexpected victory is also because in my view, its an unnatural combination. Both cannot be happy at the same time. Earlier the brahmins had their way...but now the dalits are extremely aware of their rights and status. Its upto the brahmins to be more resilient if this unnatural combination has to slowly find a workable solution. So will Maya be able to defend her citadel...will she able to keep this jadui tilism going ??? Thats a million dollar question and we do know that she really really wants this combination to work...because now she has bigger plans...to ascend the throne in delhi...use these five years to grow in stature from a regional player to gaining acceptancy at the national level. Use this combination in other states and then stake claim in Delhi. If she can keep her flock together in UP for five years...then be rest assured that she could well be addressing the country from Lal Qila in the near future. The Congress better watch out !!!

No Reservations

I was just surfing through news channels on Wednesday 26th April. Almost all the channels had the medical students agitation as their top story. Im not much of a news person to comment on that, but its a debate which needs to carry on. Most of us in our late twenties, we were in school or even younger when the Mandal politics began. At that time , all we understood was that something had gone horribly wrong and our future would be in jeopardy. But now most of us have gone through the grind and more or less settled in our own professions.

Keeping the past in perspective, one must keep in mind that its the OBC's, SC's and ST's form the majority of the country. Is there actually anything wrong in Arjun Singh giving them more reservation ? My initial response would be a vehement yes. But afterthoughts make you start thinking. I come from one of the villages in the outskirts of Kanpur district in Uttar Pradesh. I was lucky enough that my parents gave me good education so I can earn a good living. But whenever I go back home and see my playmates with whom I shared almost everything as a kid. I get the sense of a deep divide between us. Because they were not so well off, they are doing whatever little they can to earn their living. When I try to strike a conversation with them, they seem to be ill at ease, and thats when the feeling of division creeps in. For all I know, they may be hating me for it. Despite my honest intentions, its possible some may think Im just talking to them to rub it in or make them feel inferior.

My gut feeling is that we cant stop the inevitable, reservations are here to stay, and why not ? Most people from villages do not have the kind of access we have. If they are given the same opportunity, theres no reason why they shouldnt be rubbing shoulders with the best. So many bright kids have had their studious fire doused by the need to survive and earn a living. We need to realise that they are one of us. If we could play with them and be best of friends in our childhood, then its disheartening to know we moved ahead only because we had the finances and they didnt. After all every now and then, we do hear of some success stories in small towns.

The IIM's and the IIT's need to move to other countries to earn that valuable foreign exchange. This needs to be pumped into the domestic circuit for more seats in schools and colleges. If we can double the number of seats in most places, then we will have almost nullified the Mandal effect. If I were to do an agitation today, it would be for increasing the number of seats in educational institutions rather than against reservation. This will not only blur the caste divide between the youth, but all of us together can create more pressure, forcing Mr Arjun Singh to yield. Its high time we sent a message to politicians that the Britishers have long gone and so should their divide and rule policy, because united we stand.

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