The RG Factor

The Congress' brahmastra...Rahul Gandhi campaigned in UP and the party just about managed to hold onto its nine percent voteshare. So is there really a Rahul Gandhi factor or is it just hype around the young MP ??? After all...winning the Amethi seat is no big deal for the Gandhi family...so is RG...as he is called will be able to revive the Congress or is he finished...especially after the UP results ???

Any outsider will tell you that RG went to 130 assembly seats and tried hard to connect with the youth promising them a bright future. All the talk about kande se kandhe mila kar chaloonga just died at the hustings !!! But the fact is...people did come out to see him...listen to him and shake hands with him...then what went wrong...why did the Congress just manage 22 seats ???

Thats a question which the party is still groping with...but that seems to be the last thing on RG's mind. Not only did he congratulate Maya on her win but also spoke in Parliament about buliding the party organisation. Maybe RG was trying to shift the blame on the party organisation...but then isnt he also a part of the party and organisation ??? So was he actually running away from the truth ??? My take is that he was subtly taking the responsibility for the poor show.

Reports coming in also tell us that RG is meeting almost all the Congress candidates who polled over ten thousand votes...and has asked all MLA's to give him a monthly report about the status of Maya govt and feedback on their areas in general. Does this mean that Rahul is still interested in UP ??? RG may have failed to convert the votes this time...but he anyways wasnt expecting any miracle to happen. In all his statements, he talked about UP not being a one election job, but a long term haul.

So this time around...you may see a Rahul Gandhi quietly doing his job. Giving the youngsters a chance to grow and making an honest effort to revive the party in a state where caste rules the roost. His controversial statements apart, it may be too early to write off Rahul...as he also knows that if he is to keep the family legacy going...then the keys to his future lie in UP.

Its a battle for his survival...to not just take on the likes of Mulayam if he is to woo the minorities back to the Congress...but also to negate the Maya factor who is subverting the Congress formula...and it may just be a matter of time before Maya draws her sword against him...as for Rahul...miles to go before he sleeps.

Rahul vs Maya

Now that all the hurly burly is done with and the much hyped Uttar Pradesh elections are over. Its time to sit quietly and think what next for Maya...a majority in 14 years...wow !!! All the usual statistics about brahmins voting for BSP and the Congress formula being subverted etc etc is long gone. Its time to think what lies ahead for UP.

The Congress style of brahmins preaching to dalits for 40 years is gone, though the Congress did give ornamental presence to dalits in their ministries right from the days of Babu Jagjivan Ram. But now its the other way around...BSP has almost her MLA strength in the form of upper castes. That pretty much explains how Maya has come a long way to now playing a major role in national politics.

Now lets try and imagine the scenario a few months later. Maya is known to run the administration with an iron hand. She doesnt like individuals who try and create their own identity...it makes her insecure. So one should not expect to see ministers performing well as individuals. Something which could negate all of Maya's good intentions.

As far as her MLA's are concerned, we all know that the tickets did come at a price and all elected members would want to extract that price once in power. Its a natural phenomenon and one should not grudge the MLA's for doing that. Because its a simple give and take formula and thats how businesses run.

So if Im an upper caste MLA and Im trying to extract my price though government contracts or maybe some land dispute...who will I be in direct conflict with ??? At some point of time, it will be a dalit in some sphere of work...and thats when the real test for Maya will come. Will she keep her new found friends happy or will she stick to keeping her base cadre intact. She will have to take a decision because she can only keep one side happy. In either case, one side will be unhappy and thats the catch...what will the unhappy side do.

If its the upper caste...then his anger will slowly simmer as he will wait for the right moment...the dalits have been murmuring their unhappiness with maya's brahmin wooing formula for the past few months...but with a resounding win, its muted for now. If its the dalit who is left unhappy, then these murmurs will again start...it takes one small example to make it the talk of the town.

Another scenario...in the villages of UP, there is already talk of brahmin ministers touching maya's feet...this applies to all upper castes who took oath as ministers. But its the brahmin who takes his caste more seriously...earlier he was in conflict with the Yadav who used to trumpet around the village when Mulayam was in power. The Yadavs gaining power led to major resentment within brahmins, which is why they decided to teach Mulayam a lesson by voting for maya. Now the Yadav sits next to the paan shop extolling the virtues of brahmins...especially the latest feet touching move. That will never go down well with the brahmins at large, but the Yadav will keep reminding the brahmins of their glorious past with today...and would be loving every moment of it.

Maya's unexpected victory is also because in my view, its an unnatural combination. Both cannot be happy at the same time. Earlier the brahmins had their way...but now the dalits are extremely aware of their rights and status. Its upto the brahmins to be more resilient if this unnatural combination has to slowly find a workable solution. So will Maya be able to defend her citadel...will she able to keep this jadui tilism going ??? Thats a million dollar question and we do know that she really really wants this combination to work...because now she has bigger plans...to ascend the throne in delhi...use these five years to grow in stature from a regional player to gaining acceptancy at the national level. Use this combination in other states and then stake claim in Delhi. If she can keep her flock together in UP for five years...then be rest assured that she could well be addressing the country from Lal Qila in the near future. The Congress better watch out !!!