Minority Report

So Rahul Gandhi has equated the RSS with SIMI and understandably so, the BJP is up in arms. Though there are many points to argue the case either ways, we will focus on the political aspect. We all know that the RSS has often praised the young Gandhi behind closed doors for his simplistic style and him sporting a teeka everywhere he goes. But what led to Rahul going the whole hog to discredit the RSS. The key to this as usual lies in the politics of Uttar Pradesh.

It all started with the Ayodhya verdict on 30th September this year. When the Lucknow bench of the Allahabad High Court decided that the disputed land in Ayodhya belongs to both Hindus and Muslims. It also said that idols will not be removed from the sanctum sanctorum and that portion should be given to Hindus, while Muslims can be alotted land apart from the inner courtyard, Sita ki Rasoi and Ram Chabutra. Hindus were given two thirds while Muslims got one third of the land at the disputed site.

While there was almost no violence reported and an uneasy calm led to peace in Uttar Pradesh courtesy the BSP Govt and the Centre. But Mulayam Singh Yadav had other plans. While most legal eagles were still reading up on the Ayodhya judgement in its entirety, the Samajwadi Party chief beat all of them to it. The very next day on 1st October, Mulayam trashed the High Court's verdict. He went on to say that this decision was taken on the basis of faith and not law, and that Muslims of the country are feeling cheated. This ofcourse did assuage the feelings of the Muslim community in general, but created a headache for other political parties.

BSP supremo Mayawati had already asked the Centre to implement the High Court's verdict. She has shrewdly put the ball in the Congress' court. What she also managed to do with all the flag marches and security forces on the move during this period, was to instill a sense of security amongst the people at large that she will not led any violence happen. But she too realised that Mulayam may run away with the minority advantage with his provocative statement. And her managers got down to work quickly.

The result was the UP Sunni Central Waqf Board calling an emergency meeting on 5th October and decided that they will move the Supreme Court challenging the High Court verdict. This ofcourse was done before the meeting of the All India Muslim Personal Law Board, the highest decision making body for Muslims in India. Reason gbeing that the Waqf Board is the main plaintiff in the Ayodhya case. But its interesting to know that the UP Central Sunni Waqf Board has 13 members. Eight of them are elected while five are nominated by the State Govt. Out of the eight elected members on the Board, two are BSP MP's while another three are BSP MLA's. That takes the strength of the BSP Govt to 10 out of 13 members in the Board, hence the political angle comes into play. Mayawati had played her cards right.

So where did that leave the Congress ? Mulayam was busy playing his tape that he's been playing since 1990 and hoping the same record will bring him back to power in 2012 UP Assembly elections. Mayawati earned kudos for her handling the security apparatus during this episode in which no harm came anyone's way. She also blunted Mulayam's move by asking the Waqf Board to appeal against the High Court verdict. The grand old party had to quickly reinvent itself and position itself as the savious of Muslims, otherwise SP and BSP would run away with the advantage.

The gains made by the Congress in 2009 Lok Sabha election in UP was mainly due to the minority vote swinging its way instead of the usual SP and partly BSP. Now it appeared all the hard work of weaning them away from regional forces would be frittered away. No one understood this better than Rahul Gandhi who was watching this entire scenario unfold. So what does he do ? He travels to Madhya Pradesh, a state ruled by the BJP for the past seven years. A state that has earned notoriety for its anti minority policies. Rahul was interacting with University students in Tikamgarh on 5th October and he candidly equated RSS with the banned Muslim outfit SIMI. By putting both RSS and SIMI in the same boat, Rahul tried to assuage the feelings of Muslims as well as Hindus. That extremism of any kind does not figure anywhere in his brand of politics.

Rahul realised that he would earn brickbats from the Sangh Parivar for his comments. He also knows that his grandmother had once praised the RSS during her regime for their commitment. But for a person who believes that 'bread and butter' issues matter more to our people than painful old memories, he decided to take on the RSS. And as the countdown to 2012 begins, Rahul Gandhi and his position on matters of faith will be a defining moment for the Congress in the Hindi heartland.

The Congress Leak

7th June was a day full of angst for most Indians. Chief Judicial Magistrate Mohan P Tiwari convicted former Union Carbide India Chairman, Keshub Mahindra and seven others in the Bhopal gas tragedy case. The Bhopal Court awarded them a maximum of two years imprisonment, 23 years after the trial began. All eight persons applied for bail and were granted relief immediately.

Sounds almost like a joke if you were to tell anyone that 15000 people died in what was perhaps the worst industrial disaster in the world. Even more so when one hears that 89 year old Warren Anderson, the then chairman of Union Carbide Corporation of USA went scot free. Anderson lives in the United States and is still an absconder in our country.

Wait, the joke is not over yet. What if you were told that Anderson was released after being arrested. There's more, he was then put on a Madhya Pradesh Govt. plane and flown to Delhi. As dead bodies were piling up in Bhopal, Anderson was sipping tea with President Giani Zail Singh at Raisina Hill, before heading back to home sweet home.

This is a story that most knew, yet all the drama around it had long been forgotten. But Monday's verdict has once again shaken the very depths of everyone's conscience. The then Chief Minister of MP, Arjun Singh and then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi were at a rally in the state when Anderson's release was ordered. What is pretty clear from the above facts that it would not have been possible for Anderson to leave the country without taking the Centre into confidence.

Rajiv Gandhi also held the External Affairs portfolio at that time. So whether or not we like it, we will have to admit that Rajiv Gandhi knew what was happening. Many believe that the then President of the United States, Ronald Reagan himself spoke to Rajiv Gandhi and ensured Anderson's safe exit. Rajiv was made to believe that Anderson would come back later when legal proceedings against him would start. And that if Anderson was kept in Bhopal, it was very much possible that he could be lynched by the public. The state govt would not be able to control the public anger, all directed at one person. Rajiv was relatively new in politics and took the Americans at face value. So out went Anderson and 25 years later, the focus is back on 'who let Anderson go'.

The current Chief Minister of MP, Shivraj Singh Chouhan has now written to Arjun Singh asking him who let Anderson off the hook. That raises two  questions. Is Chouhan another Rip Van Winkle that he wakes up to a fact after 25 years ? The other question is more serious. What will we achieve by extraditing Anderson to India ?

What is more important for the victims of the tragedy. To see an old man being punished by the Courts, that itself could take many many more years. Probably Anderson would no more be there by then. Or do we create pressure on the Company involved through our Govt., to provide compensation to the victims and their families. If you ask the people who have lived through the horror, the overwhelming response would come for compensation first. You need to live and survive to be able to see that the perpetrators are brought to book.

So UPA-II hurriedly reconstitutes the Group of Ministers on Bhopal Gas Tragedy. This time Hime Minister P Chidambaram is made the head of the GoM replacing Arjun Singh. It also has another senior Congress leader from Madhya Pradesh Kamalnath in the group. Now we need to go back a few years to understand why these two names on the GoM have more than what meets the eye.

US giant, Dow Chemicals that bought Union Carbide in 2001 was trying hard to enter India's promising petrochemicals market in 2007. As any smart business house would do, Dow wanted to get rid of the clause which warrants that they have to pay Rs 100 crores for cleaning up the 1984 gas leak site and contaminated ground water before they can do any business in India. They wanted to get rid of the liabilities of Union Carbide that they had bought knowing fully well about the notice served to them by the Fertilizers and Chemical Ministry for the same.


Led by the Tatas, Dow reached out to the Indian Government. That instead of asking them to pay Rs 100 crore damages, Tata along with some other private sector corporates would set up a fund to clean the site in Bhopal. What this meant was the Indian Government would be making an out of court settlement to the dispute. It also led many to believe that this could also absolve Dow Chemicals of their liability to provide compensation to those victims affected by the groundwater in Bhopal. A clean chit to Dow to forget the gory past and make money in one of India's lucrative business sectors.

And who were the people pushing for Dow in India ? Tata's letter requesting Dow's entry was endorsed by the likes of P Chidambaram, Kamalnath, Abhishek Singhvi and Montek Singh Ahluwalia. Their consent was sent to the PMO to allow Dow to do business in India without clearing its liabilities of Bhopal ! And the Prime Minister has made the same person the head of the GoM who is already of the view that Dow's liabilities should be waived off.

Rajiv Gandhi did allow Anderson to fly out of India. But what was his mental frame of mind then. He had just lost his mother a month ago, he was new to politics and was busy campaigning twenty hours a day across the country during the General Elections when the disaster happened. No one knew then that it would turn into India's biggest tragedy. He is not absolved of the crime, but Im sure he would have stood up and owned responsibility. He is no more with us, but he was a man who didnt feel shy to admit that he was human. And to err is natural for humans.

But what is one to make of these senior, powerful, erudite personalities of the Congress party. Chidambaram and Kamalnath have been ministers for almost fifteen years, while Abhishek Singhvi is the party's mouthpiece in daily press briefings. They knew the full extent of Bhopal Gas Tragedy, they knew that compensation has been poor for the victims. They knew that a lot more still needs to be done to improve the conditions near the gas leak site. Yet, they agreed that Dow can be absolved of its liabilities.

So how does this reflect on UPA-II ? Is it a memory loss for the PMO that they cant seem to remember of events and letters written by important players in the Govt. just three years back ? Or is it true that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh really does bend over backwards to please the United States all the time ? Both scenarios do not look good for a Prime Minister who has always been high on integrity. And its time he responded to the situation the way we expect him to do.

The Naxal Problem

Its been quite an eventful 24 hours for Home Minister P Chidambaram since Monday, 17th May. After the Naxal attack in Dantewada, Chhattisgarh, Home Minister was busy obliging news channels of his choice by giving them interviews. A damage control exercise by him, already under fire over the handling of the Naxal menace. Dantewada proving to be a thorn for him as Naxalites struck again this Monday for the second time in a just over a month with a deadly strike rate. Over 75 CRPF personnel lost their lives on 6th April, this time almost 25 civilians and 15 tribal Special Police Officers were killed when a civilian bus was blown by Naxals.


But things were not so bad for Chidambaram till a few months ago when Operation Greenhunt was launched in November 2009. It was on 14th April this year that an unexpected criticism of his aggressive approach towards Naxals shook him and the political establishment. The word of caution came from none other than Senior Congress Leader and two time Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh, Digvijay Singh.

Diggi Raja as Digvijay Singh is fondly called, lashed out against an all out use of force in dealing with Naxals. He even called himself a victim of Chidambaram’s 'intellectual arrogance'. He was referring to Home Minister’s attitude to sensitive issues like the Batla House encounter in Delhi and Naxalism. There was confusion within the Congress party's ranks. No one had expected a leader of Diggi Raja's stature to take on the Home Minister publicly, especially when Parliament was in session and the UPA pushed in a corner over many other sensitive issues. The party treaded cautiously terming it as a personal comment by Digvijay Singh and left it to the higher ups to deal with the dynamics.

It’s not as if this was the first time Digvijay Singh was saying this. He has been for a more politically mature and peaceful way of dealing with the Naxal issue since 1998. He was also instrumental in successfully negotiating peace with the Naxals of Andhra Pradesh while YSR was still alive. But it was the timing that took everyone by surprise. The former CM was away in Houston attending to his ailing wife, but his mind was on Dantewada, Chhattisgarh. And he somehow had to get it out of his system.

Digvijay Singh may have not earned brownie points both from the party and his party colleague P Chidambaram, but what he managed to do was to shift the focus. From Home Minister’s thrust on aggression and Naxalism being just a law and order situation, to that of a problem with a social angle also. He spoke about the 73rd Amendment in our Constitution, PESA (The Panchayati Extension to Scheduled Areas). This Act makes special provision for Panchayats to function in such a way that they can both protect and promote tribal interests according to the spirit of the scheduled areas as enshrined in the Constitution. Unfortunately, PESA is yet to become a reality as most states have legislations to counter the actual devolution of power in scheduled areas.

Chidambaram got all support from his party and the PM after Digvijay Singh’s criticism, but the Home Minister didn’t miss the underlining theme of the Congress party. And it was evident as early as 23rd April, just nine days after Digvijay Singh’s famous article was published. Here is what Chidambaram said at a meeting of Consultative Committee of Home Affairs on 23rd April.

“The Govt will continue to follow its two pronged approach of development and calibrated police action to deal with the Naxal problem. The debate on what should take place first- development or police action- is misplaced. The decision will vary from situation to situation and from State to State and no fixed prescription is possible. In some areas, it may be possible to undertake some developmental activities, to be followed immediately by steps to strengthen security. In other areas, it may be necessary to first launch police action to regain control of the territory, followed by vigorous developmental activities.”

Some members in the Consultative Committee seemed to echo what others had dared not tell Chidambaram before Digvijay Singh. That it would be difficult to deal with Naxals without involving locals and local police. A suggestion even coming that an all party Parliamentary delegation should visit Naxal affected areas to win trust and goodwill of the people. The need for good coordination between central paramilitary forces and local police was also pointed out. It’s not as if it needed an expert to point out the basics of how to deal with Naxalism, it was all there. All it needed was a strong voice to articulate it and Digvijay Singh did just that. He of -course found a friend in Mani Shankar Aiyar who agreed a thousand percent with him.

The story gets more interesting just a day after Chidambaram’s two pronged strategy. Here is the translation of what PM, Manmohan Singh said to senior bureaucrats from across the country on Panchayati Raj Divas (24th April) in New Delhi. “We have to give special attention to remote and extreme backward areas of the country. This includes a lot of tribal areas and Panchayati Raj agencies need to work effectively to bring our schemes to them. This will help us a lot in dealing with the Naxal problem.”

So the UPA had already shifted gear in its approach to the Naxal problem just ten days after the difference of opinion became public. And that explains why Digvijay Singh was asked to meet Chidambaram in his North Block office to mend fences with each other on 7th May. Singh had earlier regretted his public attack on the Home Minister and his policy of dealing with Naxals on 29th April while he was busy with party work in Lucknow.

But it took Congress President Sonia Gandhi’s letter to party mouthpiece Congress Sandesh that finally put an end to the debate within the party. "While we must address acts of terror decisively, we have to address the root causes of Naxalism. The rise of Naxalism is a reflection of the need for our development initiatives to reach the grassroots, especially in our backward tribal districts.”

After having braved criticism within his own party, Chidambaram has been quick to adapt his policy on dealing with Naxalism. This Monday night saw him talking of ‘limited mandate’. Tuesday morning, he makes an offer of talks to Naxals again during a TV interview. BJP was quick to term him an ‘injured martyr’. But by the evening, he had sufficiently recovered. The ‘limited mandate’ meant Centre only plays a supporting role to States in law and order situations. States have ‘unlimited mandate’ and the ball was squarely put in Chhattisgarh CM Raman Singh’s court.

Now I can’t help but think aloud “ Isn’t this what Digvijay Singh had said about who should be held responsible for the April 6 attack on CRPF in Dantewada ?”. But then a supremely confident Chidambaram had made the famous quote “The buck stops with me.” His offer to resign had been quickly struck down by Manmohan Singh. For once, Chidambaram must be admitting to himself. That he had to tow someone else’s line on one of his top agendas in UPA-II. And that is no mean feat by any standards.

Heal the Bill

Its the Bill that is making international headlines. Congress President Sonia Gandhi making it clear that the Women's Reservation Bill has reached the "now or never" stage. Though many people have already made the point about the bad timing of the Bill, one still cant understand why it was "bulldozed " in the Rajya Sabha.
Lack of floor coordination was amply clear and all that was needed to do was to give these dissenting MP's a chance to articulate their views. Ok, agreed that it may have taken a few more days for the Bill to go through, but wouldnt it have given the UPA floor managers more time to get their act together. Yet the fact remains that if it wasnt for Sonia Gandhi's insistence, the Bill would still be gathering dust in Parliament.
If you ever come to Vijay Chowk outside Parliament, you will find an old lady selling fruits during the day. She lives near the Kalkaji Temple, buys fresh fruits from Okhla Mandi, takes a bus to Central Secretariat and then goes about her business. She first sells to the tourists who come in buses to see Parliament, and then its the journalists, OB engineers and ofcourse the Police who are all a permanent fixture when Parliament is in session.
During the period of the three days when the fate of the Bill was still unclear, I couldnt help but think of that lady. She is in her fifties, simple and extremely hardworking. Yet she remains blissfully unaware of the landmark Bill that was passed in the Rajya Sabha. And the question that kept haunting me was " Will the likes of this lady ever make it to Parliament ?".
This Bill is being showcased as giving equal rights to women in policy making of the country. But will it make that qualitative difference that we are actually looking for ? I know one has to start somewhere, yet why does one get the feeling that the Bill is being pushed in a hurry. Its not as if India has never given women the lead role in politics. Indiraji still remains one of our longest serving Prime Ministers. Sheila Dikshit is successfully in her third term as Delhi Chief Minister, may even run for the fourth. Mayawati and Mamta Bannerjee need no introduction.
The system has given enough chance for able people to come through the ranks. But if the Bill is really aimed at the rural women, then there definitely needs to be some introspection. No denying success stories where women have changed the face of politics, but they sadly remain a small percentage. Most of the women in Panchayat posts are run by their husbands, so why not stem the rot at the grassroot level first. If we can create a system where we can actually have women doing their own thing in Panchayats, then they will anyways win on their own and no reservation will be required to help them.
Till we can involve or give people like the old lady who sells fruits at Vijay Chowk a chance or hope that they too can play a part in the decision making process, this Bill will remain fundamentally flawed. Because that lady works as hard as any other person, toiling in the sun and yet smiling. She uses her savings to buy fruits and then carries them on her head the whole day till she can sell most of it. She could have taken the easier option of selling tobacco, cigarettes, pan masala etc. Things that sell easily, and people are willing to pay a substantially higher price than the MRP for these addictions. Yet this woman prefers to sell fresh fruits, even expounding the virtues of each fruit that she sells to people she likes.
That is the fundamental change that women can bring, a sense of being upright even when easier temptations are available. All the others who sell snacks at Vijay Chowk never forget to carry pan masala and cigarettes with them, little wonder that they are all men ! Always ready to make a quick buck at the expense of other people's health, but who cares. No one, not the person buying or selling. But that woman does, yet she remains outside the ambit of the debate on the Bill.
Till we can work out a formula where we listen patiently to the reservations of various political parties, this Bill doesnt have a future. You dont have to amend the Bill to everyone's liking as that would finish the objective of the Bill, but try and accomodate as much as possible. Because at the moment, the objective may be noble and clear but the path remains confused.

The Fall of Amar Singh

So Mulayam Singh has finally accepted Amar Singh's resignation. Many questions have been raised and a few unanswered. Was Amar Singh's resignation pre planned or it came like a bolt from the blue. Such major things do not happen just like that, and this was just waiting to happen. Ever since Kalyan Singh joined hands with the SP to all the way in Firozabad byelection where Dimple lost creating a very embarrassing situation for Akhilesh Yadav. It was pretty clear that the SP had just been given a rude wake up call and the party was headed for a major shake up.
So what went wrong in a relationship that had stood the test of time. Amar Singh and Mulayam Singh were inseparable, but blood is thicker than water. The frustration of Mulayam's family over Amar Singh had been building since 2007. But things only got worse after the 2009 Lok Sabha election. SP losing out any kind of bargaining power in the Centre, while its main opposition party the BSP was ruling roost in UP.
People blame Amar Singh for bringing in Dimple and infighting that led to SP losing the prestigious Firozabad seat. But didnt the very same people realise that they were anyways heading for disaster by making Akhilesh contest from two seats of Kannauj and Firozabad. Akhilesh would have won both seats which he did, but the big question is that who would they give the ticket to when Akhilesh would vacate a seat. The SP leadership tried to take the easier way out by postponing a tough decision, hoping that things would sort themselves out on their own. The result was disastrous, the SP had to fight the Firozabad byelection with the BSP at the helm in the state. If they had given the ticket to someone else during the Lok Sabha elections, they would still have been better off as the political situation would have been much more neutral that it is in a byelection where the ruling party in the state normally has the upper hand.
Why blame Amar Singh when atleast three former MLA's of the SP from the area were instrumental in ensuring that people once again had to relive the days of SP's goondaraj during the Firozabad byelection. Apart from their image, what happened to all the money that Amar Singh had sent for the election while he was recuperating in Singapore. Can the SP wrong or even question Amar Singh's integrity in any way for his role in the byelection ?
Now to the moot question, yes its true that Amar Singh did influence the SP to such an extent that when Mulayam was taking oath in 2003 as Chief Minister of UP, people were witnessing a different Samajwad or Socialism than the one they were used to. Sahara's entire fleet had the likes of the Bachchans, Ambanis and the Nandas driving to the ceremony. The Uttar Pradesh Development Corporation and the Dadri Power Project were brain child of Amar Singh. Sadly both were non starters, Dadri is nowhere near starting while UPDC was scrapped by the BSP regime.
Kalyan Singh was perhaps Amar Singh's biggest blunder, but he did have some correct arithmetic to it. Knowing fully well that the BJP was finished and the Muslim vote was no longer as loyal to the SP. he did try to get the OBC Rajput formula going for the SP. But with muslims voting enmasse for the Congress, Amar Singh had to bear the brunt of it. So the old guard within the SP got together and started a campaign for the party to get back to its Socialist leanings that had made it a darling with the masses. Which in operational terms meant, get rid of Amar Singh.
Ram Gopal Yadav is just the face of that campaign, and Amar Singh realised the futility of his continuing with a party where he is doing all he can and is yet criticised for not doing enough. So will Amar Singh join the Congress. No, as there are few takers for him in the Congress. The best bet is for him to be on his own, and it may not take very long for Amar Singh to float his own outfit. He has the money and supporters to contest atleast 60 seats in the UP assembly election in 2012, and can even get 20 candidates elected. He could be the Raj Thackeray of the SP in the next election and anyone who stakes claim to the next Govt in UP will need his support. Amar Singh can easily tie up with NCP, Left and other regional parties and get a national status like Shankar Sinh Vaghela had after he brought down the BJP Govt in Gujarat in the 1990's. Vaghela's RJP fared badly in the next election and he or Bapu as he is fondly called was referred to as a leader without a party. But Amar Singh could do it differently, as all eyes are once again on him, as the Rajput from Azamgarh could be the king maker in UP in 2012.